Latest data shows that the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September have experienced fluctuations. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped from 84.7% yesterday to 75%, while the likelihood of maintaining the interest rate has risen to 25%. This change reflects a subtle adjustment in the market's view on the Fed's policy direction, which is underpinned by multiple complex factors.

Recently, the cautious statements from several Fed officials have cooled the market. On August 21, the presidents of the Cleveland, Kansas City, and Atlanta Federal Reserves expressed different views on the prospect of a rate cut in September. Among them, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester clearly stated that if a decision were to be made now, she would not support a rate cut in September. These hawkish remarks have clearly influenced market expectations.

On the other hand, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting once boosted expectations for interest rate cuts. He mentioned the increasing downside risks to employment, that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be temporary, and hinted that a policy adjustment might be necessary. This statement temporarily raised the probability of a rate cut in September, but it later fell back to around 75%.

This repeated expectation reflects the market's divergent interpretations of the Fed's policy direction. On one hand, the performance of economic data and inflation trends remain key factors in decision-making; on the other hand, global economic uncertainty and trade situations are also influencing the Fed's policy considerations.

Analysts point out that economic data in the coming weeks will be key to influencing the interest rate decision in September. Data on the labor market, inflation indicators, and consumer confidence will all be closely monitored. At the same time, subsequent statements from Fed officials will continue to guide market expectations.

Overall, although the expectation of interest rate cuts still dominates, uncertainty has clearly increased. Market participants need to remain vigilant and closely monitor various economic indicators and policy signals in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner. The direction of the Fed's decisions not only concerns the U.S. economy but will also have a profound impact on global financial markets.