Hope for the altcoin fall season due to this index

Altcoins are heating up as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and even some memecoins are also rising to the sky. Accordingly, the crypto community is starting to buzz again. Many believe that the "altcoin season" has finally arrived. But the numbers indicate that it is not yet time.

Let's analyze the actual data to see why this may still just be the "starting" phase and not the main event.

The capital flow is starting to rotate, but ETH is still not leading

The altcoin season index has just reached 51, up from below 40 a few weeks ago. This number is very important. It measures how many of the top 50 altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin over the past 90 days. If this index exceeds 75, it would indicate that a true altcoin season is underway.

Source: MagsAt level 51, we have surpassed the midpoint but are still quite far from the confirmation signal.

Additionally, Bitcoin's dominance index has decreased from 65% to 58.9% over the past month. This means that traders are shifting capital from BTC to altcoin. This is one of the first signs that the altcoin season may be starting.

Bitcoin's dominance rate | Source: XNHowever, the issue is that ETH is not the leading coin in this move. The dominance index of ETH remains below 15%, much lower than the peak of 22.5% in 2024. In fact, when comparing the ETH chart with BTC, the pair is still moving sideways, not breaking out yet. Additionally, at the time of writing, BTC has just hit a new all-time high, while ETH and SOL are still lagging behind.

ETH dominance rate | Source: TradingViewThis is important because the altcoin season usually starts when ETH rises to the sky against BTC. Currently, ETH is just enough to catch up. Until the ETH dominance index increases, this rally is still not convincing.

The market capitalization of altcoin does not include ETH | Source: Benjamin Cowen## OI is rising, but so is the risk

The total open contracts for altcoin (OI) have now reached 47.01 billion dollars — the highest level since November 2021, during the previous peak of excitement.

OI is the amount of open contracts that have not been settled. When this index rises rapidly, it indicates that more and more traders are betting on the price increasing.

But there is one detail that makes the picture different.

OI altcoin | Source: GlassnodeNearly half of this OI comes from ETH alone, over 23.6 billion dollars. This is a positive signal, but as seen, the price movement of ETH is still not really attractive. Therefore, most of this interest may just be passive exposure or positions opened early.

Solana (SOL) ranks second with $7.4 billion, followed by XRP with $3.9 billion. Other coins like AVAX, DOGE, LINK, and BNB make up the rest.

This shows us two things: traders are focusing on large-cap coins and the small-cap group has not yet "joined the party."

High OI means that leverage is being used more. If the price suddenly drops, the likelihood of large liquidations is very high. This is a clear risk. Until ETH breaks out, this leverage could quickly become an enemy rather than an ally.

The altcoin season mentality is forming, but has not yet reached its peak

Another important signal is Google Trends. The search volume for the phrase "altcoin season" is rising again, especially over the past 7 days. However, this level of interest is still lower than the peak in 2021, at least in terms of search volume.

It is important to note that by 2025, the number of altcoins has risen to the sky, so to show the same level of excitement as before, this interest index will have to be much higher.

User interest level in altcoin | Source: GordonThe crypto community is very excited. The platform X is flooded with posts "altseason has arrived". Top traders continually share charts, soaring OI data, and the reversal of the dominance index.

But the real excitement of the market has yet to appear. This is clearly reflected in the subdued interest from retail investors and the sluggish movement of the ETH/BTC pair.

In addition, the altcoin season index is still quite far from the 75 mark — the level indicating that 75% of the top altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. Until this threshold is reached, the market is still in the "pre-season" phase.

That is why traders remain cautious, especially when there are too many positions using high leverage.

Data shows that altcoin is gradually regaining its position, slowly but surely. The Bitcoin dominance index is declining. OI altcoin is rising to the sky. Traders are excited again.

But ETH is not the leading coin. ETH/BTC is still moving sideways. And the altcoin season index is at 51 — not enough to confirm a true altcoin season.

Đình Đình