Yesterday, Trump made a rare visit to the Fed headquarters, publicly clashing with Chairman Powell over project cost overruns, while insisting that there is "no tension" between the two sides. Trump not only mocked that "if it were me, I would have fired the project manager long ago," but also took the opportunity to call for a rate cut again. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 95.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is 39.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 58.4%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 2.4%. The US stock market closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow initially down 0.7%, the S&P 500 slightly up, and the Nasdaq composite index up 0.18%. American Airlines Group (AAL.O) and Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) both fell around 10%, while NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 1.7% and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 8.2%. Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to maintain high levels after rebounding overnight, while altcoins saw significant declines, with a flash in the pan coins leading the fall list.

Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback to a low of 117790 overnight before rebounding directly to a high of 119435, encountering resistance. From the current market perspective, the daily level shows effective support in the short term. The main coin rebounded to the upper pressure of the previous fluctuation range, and although the 4-hour chart shows a pullback followed by a rebound, the price has effectively broken through the resistance of the Bollinger Band's middle line and stabilized. At the same time, the Bollinger Band channel is showing an expanding trend, indicating an increase in price volatility and opening up upward space. Technical patterns reveal a pattern of gradually rising lows, and if the price cannot break through the resistance area near 120,000, there is a risk of another pullback to support. Conversely, if it breaks through and stabilizes, the market is expected to open up upward space. Currently, the trend is characterized by wide fluctuations, with the price oscillating back and forth within the range. It is still recommended to short at high points and long at low points in operations!

Ethereum's trend is similar, testing upwards from a low of 3610 to around a high of 3769 in the evening, and then immediately facing pressure and falling back. The recent daily candlestick formed a bullish line with a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying support at lower levels. After a continuous rise at the hourly level, a pullback has occurred, and it is currently in a consolidation phase at a high level, which may face pressure in the short term. After a brief surge, the coin price encountered a slight pullback, but the magnitude of this pullback is limited, showing that market support below is solid, and it is in a buildup phase, with bullish forces ready to launch. Switching to the hourly chart perspective, the coin price remains above the upper track, and after a rapid surge and orderly pullback, bullish momentum is re-emerging, with the bullish energy bars slightly enhanced. In the short term, although the market may continue to experience slight pullbacks, the technical indicators on the MACD hourly chart show that the DIF and DEA are gradually approaching the zero axis, and the energy bars are shrinking, indicating a weakening of bullish forces, but it has not fully turned bearish yet. Therefore, until the upper resistance level is broken, we will continue to maintain the strategy of shorting after a rebound.